How to calculate value in football odds

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Calculate value in football odds

To calculate the value in football odds, you need to compare the probability of a certain outcome occurring as estimated by the bookmaker to your own estimate of that probability. If the bookmaker’s odds imply a lower probability of an event occurring than your own estimate, then there might be value in betting on that outcome.

The formula for calculating the value in football odds is as follows:

Value = (Your estimate of the probability of an event occurring) / (Odds offered by the bookmaker)

For example, if the bookmaker offers odds of 2.00 (decimal odds) for a certain team to win a match, this implies a 19% chance of that outcome occurring. If your estimate of the probability of that team winning is higher, say 60%, then there might be value in betting on that outcome:

Value = (0.60) / (2.00) = 0.30

A value of 0.30 means that you would expect to make a profit of 30% on your bet if your estimate of the probability of the event occurring is correct. However, it’s important to keep in mind that this is a long-term calculation and actual results in the short-term may vary.

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